MANILA - An uptick of new COVID-19 infections was seen in several areas in the Philippines as more Filipinos indulge in holiday activities, the Department of Health said Thursday.
In a press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that there is a “continuous growth of cases” in some areas which include the capital region, “signaling the start of the surge.”
Vergeire cited reports on the public’s “decreasing adherence” to physical distancing in malls and holiday sales in open spaces, which increases the risk of COVID-19 transmission.
“What we are explaining now… we are not saying that there is no, we are not saying that there is nothing (surge). We are saying that he is starting, the cases are rising. That is what our experts are explaining now, ”Vergeire explained.
(What we are explaining is the onset of the surge in COVID-19 cases, there is a rise in new infections. That is what the experts are explaining.)
Aside from Metro Manila, the areas that recorded the highest spike in new cases include Calabarzon, the Davao Region, and the Cordillera Administrative Region.
The NCR, CAR, Region 1, and Region 2, also recorded a trend reversal from a negative growth to a positive growth in new cases in the past 2 weeks, she said.
The health official earlier revealed that the NCR now has an average daily attack rate (ADAR) that is above the national average.
NCR has an ADAR of 2.71 for the past two weeks, higher than the country’s 1.35.
ADAR is the number of new cases in a city or province over a two-week period, divided by the population of the city or province.
But despite this, the holiday surge could be prevented.
“We are not waiting for it to happen, it is how much we are looking at. And that is what we are trying to avoid. What will be the impact of this increase in these post-holiday cases if we are not going to provide intervention, ”she said.
(We will not wait if there would be a surge … We are looking into the impact of new cases.)
‘Danger for the rate of transmission to go up exponentially’
The health department warned of the virus’ increasing reproduction rate (R), which is now above 1.0 from 0.8.
The R value measures the average number of people that one infected person passes the disease to. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth.
OCTA research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said the danger is for the transmission rate to increase “explosively.”
“I think it is most significant that the R value has risen above 1 for the first time in months and this suggests that the (cases) started to increase … The R has been going up for the [past] few weeks, the danger for the R to go up exponentially and explosively, and that is what we are trying to prevent today, ”Austriaco said.
Vergeire, however, clarified that the country is yet to experience a “surge” of COVID-19 cases, despite infections going up.
The health department as well as other experts, according to her, are monitoring the impact of the new cases after the holidays.
“Based on scientific definition, there is no surge yet, our cases are still rising but we do not want to get there that is why we are doing these things to prevent these things to happen.”
(There is no surge yet. We are still recording a spike in new cases but we do not want to get to the point where we have a surge, which is why we are trying to prevent it.)